Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) and agentic systems have shown exceptional decision-making capabilities, revealing significant potential for autonomic finance. Current financial trading agents predominantly simulate anthropomorphic roles that inadvertently introduce emotional biases and rely on peripheral information, while being constrained by the necessity for continuous inference during deployment. In this paper, we pioneer the harmonization of strategic depth in agents with the mechanical rationality essential for quantitative trading. Consequently, we present TiMi (Trade in Minutes), a rationality-driven multi-agent system that architecturally decouples strategy development from minute-level deployment. TiMi leverages specialized LLM capabilities of semantic analysis, code programming, and mathematical reasoning within a comprehensive policy-optimization-deployment chain. Specifically, we propose a two-tier analytical paradigm from macro patterns to micro customization, layered programming design for trading bot implementation, and closed-loop optimization driven by mathematical reflection. Extensive evaluations across 200+ trading pairs in stock and cryptocurrency markets empirically validate the efficacy of TiMi in stable profitability, action efficiency, and risk control under volatile market dynamics.

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity, the digital asset marketplace becomes increasingly significant. Understanding social media signals offers valuable insights into investor sentiment and market dynamics. Prior research has predominantly focused on text-based platforms such as Twitter. However, video content remains underexplored, despite potentially containing richer emotional and contextual sentiment that is not fully captured by text alone. In this study, we present a multimodal analysis comparing TikTok and Twitter sentiment, using large language models to extract insights from both video and text data. We investigate the dynamic dependencies and spillover effects between social media sentiment and cryptocurrency market indicators. Our results reveal that TikTok's video-based sentiment significantly influences speculative assets and short-term market trends, while Twitter's text-based sentiment aligns more closely with long-term dynamics. Notably, the integration of cross-platform sentiment signals improves forecasting accuracy by up to 20%.

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have become a significant digital asset class, each uniquely representing virtual entities such as artworks. These tokens are stored in collections within smart contracts and are actively traded across platforms on Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana blockchains. The value of NFTs is closely tied to their distinctive characteristics that define rarity, leading to a growing interest in quantifying rarity within both industry and academia. While there are existing rarity meters for assessing NFT rarity, comparing them can be challenging without direct access to the underlying collection data. The Rating over all Rarities (ROAR) benchmark addresses this challenge by providing a standardized framework for evaluating NFT rarity. This paper explores a dimension reduction approach to rarity design, introducing new performance measures and meters, and evaluates them using the ROAR benchmark. Our contributions to the rarity meter design issue include developing an optimal rarity meter design using non-metric weighted multidimensional scaling, introducing Dissimilarity in Trades (DIT) as a performance measure inspired by dimension reduction techniques, and unveiling the non-interpretable rarity meter DIT, which demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods.

Generative modeling of high-frequency limit order book (LOB) dynamics is a critical yet unsolved challenge in quantitative finance, essential for robust market simulation and strategy backtesting. Existing approaches are often constrained by simplifying stochastic assumptions or, in the case of modern deep learning models like Transformers, rely on tokenization schemes that affect the high-precision, numerical nature of financial data through discretization and binning. To address these limitations, we introduce ByteGen, a novel generative model that operates directly on the raw byte streams of LOB events. Our approach treats the problem as an autoregressive next-byte prediction task, for which we design a compact and efficient 32-byte packed binary format to represent market messages without information loss. The core novelty of our work is the complete elimination of feature engineering and tokenization, enabling the model to learn market dynamics from its most fundamental representation. We achieve this by adapting the H-Net architecture, a hybrid Mamba-Transformer model that uses a dynamic chunking mechanism to discover the inherent structure of market messages without predefined rules. Our primary contributions are: 1) the first end-to-end, byte-level framework for LOB modeling; 2) an efficient packed data representation; and 3) a comprehensive evaluation on high-frequency data. Trained on over 34 million events from CME Bitcoin futures, ByteGen successfully reproduces key stylized facts of financial markets, generating realistic price distributions, heavy-tailed returns, and bursty event timing. Our findings demonstrate that learning directly from byte space is a promising and highly flexible paradigm for modeling complex financial systems, achieving competitive performance on standard market quality metrics without the biases of tokenization.

We explore the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) to replicate human behavior in economic market experiments. Compared to previous studies, we focus on dynamic feedback between LLM agents: the decisions of each LLM impact the market price at the current step, and so affect the decisions of the other LLMs at the next step. We compare LLM behavior to market dynamics observed in laboratory settings and assess their alignment with human participants' behavior. Our findings indicate that LLMs do not adhere strictly to rational expectations, displaying instead bounded rationality, similarly to human participants. Providing a minimal context window i.e. memory of three previous time steps, combined with a high variability setting capturing response heterogeneity, allows LLMs to replicate broad trends seen in human experiments, such as the distinction between positive and negative feedback markets. However, differences remain at a granular level--LLMs exhibit less heterogeneity in behavior than humans. These results suggest that LLMs hold promise as tools for simulating realistic human behavior in economic contexts, though further research is needed to refine their accuracy and increase behavioral diversity.

Market simulator tries to create high-quality synthetic financial data that mimics real-world market dynamics, which is crucial for model development and robust assessment. Despite continuous advancements in simulation methodologies, market fluctuations vary in terms of scale and sources, but existing frameworks often excel in only specific tasks. To address this challenge, we propose Financial Wind Tunnel (FWT), a retrieval-augmented market simulator designed to generate controllable, reasonable, and adaptable market dynamics for model testing. FWT offers a more comprehensive and systematic generative capability across different data frequencies. By leveraging a retrieval method to discover cross-sectional information as the augmented condition, our diffusion-based simulator seamlessly integrates both macro- and micro-level market patterns. Furthermore, our framework allows the simulation to be controlled with wide applicability, including causal generation through "what-if" prompts or unprecedented cross-market trend synthesis. Additionally, we develop an automated optimizer for downstream quantitative models, using stress testing of simulated scenarios via FWT to enhance returns while controlling risks. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach enables the generalizable and reliable market simulation, significantly improve the performance and adaptability of downstream models, particularly in highly complex and volatile market conditions. Our code and data sample is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/fwt_-E852

We introduce Simulation Streams, a programming paradigm designed to efficiently control and leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) for complex, dynamic simulations and agentic workflows. Our primary goal is to create a minimally interfering framework that harnesses the agentic abilities of LLMs while addressing their limitations in maintaining consistency, selectively ignoring/including information, and enforcing strict world rules. Simulation Streams achieves this through a state-based approach where variables are modified in sequential steps by "operators," producing output on a recurring format and adhering to consistent rules for state variables. This approach focus the LLMs on defined tasks, while aiming to have the context stream remain "in-distribution". The approach incorporates an Entity-Component-System (ECS) architecture to write programs in a more intuitive manner, facilitating reuse of workflows across different components and entities. This ECS approach enhances the modularity of the output stream, allowing for complex, multi-entity simulations while maintaining format consistency, information control, and rule enforcement. It is supported by a custom editor that aids in creating, running, and analyzing simulations. We demonstrate the versatility of simulation streams through an illustrative example of an ongoing market economy simulation, a social simulation of three characters playing a game of catch in a park and a suite of classical reinforcement learning benchmark tasks. These examples showcase Simulation Streams' ability to handle complex, evolving scenarios over 100s-1000s of iterations, facilitate comparisons between different agent workflows and models, and maintain consistency and continued interesting developments in LLM-driven simulations.

The Queue-Reactive model introduced by Huang et al. (2015) has become a standard tool for limit order book modeling, widely adopted by both researchers and practitioners for its simplicity and effectiveness. We present the Multidimensional Deep Queue-Reactive (MDQR) model, which extends this framework in three ways: it relaxes the assumption of queue independence, enriches the state space with market features, and models the distribution of order sizes. Through a neural network architecture, the model learns complex dependencies between different price levels and adapts to varying market conditions, while preserving the interpretable point-process foundation of the original framework. Using data from the Bund futures market, we show that MDQR captures key market properties including the square-root law of market impact, cross-queue correlations, and realistic order size patterns. The model demonstrates particular strength in reproducing both conditional and stationary distributions of order sizes, as well as various stylized facts of market microstructure. The model achieves this while maintaining the computational efficiency needed for practical applications such as strategy development through reinforcement learning or realistic backtesting.

This manuscript introduces the Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure developed in the context of a new Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach for stock return and volatility forecasting. A novel sentiment score equation is presented to capture component and memory effects and assign dynamic parameters, enhancing the impact of intraday news data on forecasting next-period volatility for selected U.S. semiconductor tickers. This approach integrates machine learning techniques to analyze and improve the predictive value of news. Building on the research of Geman et al [6], this work improves forecast accuracy by addressing news bias, memory, and weight, and incorporating shifts in senti-ment direction. Finally, we propose the Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure, proving its existence and uniqueness, and discuss its theoretical applications in finance for NLP-based stock return forecasting, outlining future research pathways inspired by its concepts.

We propose a decentralized market model in which agents can negotiate bilateral contracts. This builds on a similar, but centralized, model of trading networks introduced by Hatfield et al. (2013). Prior work has established that fully-substitutable preferences guarantee the existence of competitive equilibria which can be centrally computed. Our motivation comes from the fact that prices in markets such as over-the-counter markets and used car markets arise from \textit{decentralized} negotiation among agents, which has left open an important question as to whether equilibrium prices can emerge from agent-to-agent bilateral negotiations. We design a best response dynamic intended to capture such negotiations between market participants. We assume fully substitutable preferences for market participants. In this setting, we provide proofs of convergence for sparse markets ({covering many real world markets of interest}), and experimental results for more general cases, demonstrating that prices indeed reach equilibrium, quickly, via bilateral negotiations. Our best response dynamic, and its convergence behavior, forms an important first step in understanding how decentralized markets reach, and retain, equilibrium.